Much like Palpatine’s resurrection, somehow, the Academy Awards have returned. This Sunday, they’re poised to capture the undivided attention of film geeks for a 98th time, celebrating 2025’s expansive array of high-quality motion pictures. Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Sentimental Value are among the most nominated features during a year that most agree is one of the strongest in recent memory.
As I write these words, I do feel a twinge of “why?” in my stomach. Even as someone living and breathing cinema, is the 2026 Oscars ceremony—a glitzy ode to rich people in the best of times—something worth noticing? Given the cavalcade of American-induced trauma consuming the globe, it’s impossible to call it crucial or even close to important. But perhaps a night celebrating cinema, “a machine for empathy”, as Roger Ebert so ingeniously declared, can be vital in its own way.
Cinema draws us closer to one another in communal spaces. 2025 titles like The Voice of Hind Rajab and The Alabama Solution spotlight voices too often erased in the world. Even watching this goofy ceremony with friends, bonding over funny moments or bizarre “what just happened?!?” live TV occurrences, reaffirms the value of uniting with other people. In the face of unthinkable chaos, we must have each other. Cinema can help make us feel a little less alone.
Before the March 15th ceremony reminds the world of cinema’s virtues, though, we have work to do. Specifically, predicting the winners—and making sure to call out who should win, too—at the 98th Academy Awards.
Will my predictions give you a flawless 2026 Oscars ballot? The Spool’s attorneys have advised me to say no. But they should help give you a glimpse into what the award season landscape looks like. So before “the gay Super Bowl”, as my Uncle Doug liked to call it, kicks off, let’s go!
Behold! My 2026 Oscars Predictions!
Best Animated Short Film
Who Will Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Who Should Win: Retirement Plan
Best Live-Action Short Film
Who Will Win: Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Who Should Win: N/A (Look, I can’t have opinions on EVERYTHING.)
Best Documentary Short Film
Who Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Who Should Win: N/A
Best Casting
Welcome to the Oscars, Best Casting! This year, the inevitable first-ever victory in this new category should be Francine Maisley for Sinners. The film won the SAG Best Ensemble award, and has so much momentum. Thus, expect this horror film to take home the first Best Casting trophy.
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: Sinners
Best Sound
Who Will Win: F1
Who Should Win: Sinners
Best Music (Original Song)
Who Will Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Who Should Win: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Music (Original Score)
Ludwig Göransson, prepare yourself, you’re about to become only the 17th musician in history to win three or more Best Original Score Oscars. Only ten years ago, he scored the Netflix movie True Memoirs of an International Assassin. Truly, what a glow-up.
Who Will Win: Ludwig Göransson for Sinners
Who Should Win: Ludwig Göransson for Sinners
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Frankenstein
Who Should Win: The Ugly Stepsister
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: Sinners
Best Cinematography
Perhaps the precisely staged tableaus of Train Dreams sweep voters off their feet and win this category. Presently, it’s hard to imagine Autumn Durald Arkapaw not scoring a richly justified win in this domain.
Who Will Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners
Who Should Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners
Best Editing
Dear Academy. Anyone but F1 for this category, please. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: One Battle After Another
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: Frankenstein
Who Should Win: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: Sinners
Best Documentary Feature Film
Who Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Who Should Win: The Alabama Solution
Best International Film
The Secret Agent seemingly has this category all sewn up. However, Sentimental Value (the only one of this year’s Best International Film nominees with a Best Director nod) could be a spoiler. Currently, though, it looks likely that we’ll all be saying “Parabéns por mais uma vitória no Oscar, indústria cinematográfica brasileira” after the 98th Academy Awards.
Who Will Win: The Secret Agent
Who Should Win: It Was Just an Accident
Best Animated Feature Film
When this category was conceived, it felt as though Disney or Pixart would own it for all times. However, barring Zootopia 2 pulling a major upset here, this will be the fourth consecutive year Disney’s lost the Best Animated Feature Film category.
Who Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Who Should Win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Best Adapted Screenplay
Surreally, a Thomas Pynchon novel will inspire a win at the 2026 Oscars. One Battle After Another, which was based on the book Vineland, will easily win this category and get Paul Thomas Anderson his first Academy Award. Will it be his only statue of the night? We’ll talk about that momentarily…
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
Plausibly, Jafar Panahi and crew could score an unexpected win here for It Was Just an Accident. Alas, this most likely will be another place Sinners emerges victorious. Of course, that’s cool in its own right. A horror film winning the Best Original Screenplay Oscar, ya love to see it.
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: It Was Just an Accident
Best Supporting Actress
Will Amy Madigan finally score a win for stealing the show as Aunt Gladys in Weapons? It’s entirely possible given her multiple high-profile wins in this category at other award shindigs. However, the Best Supporting Actress victories at major precursor award shows have been all over the place. Madigan does seem narrowly like the frontrunner for now, but don’t be surprised if Wunmi Mosaku ends up being an upset victor, especially if Sinners begins taking off during the night.
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan for Weapons
Who Should Win: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Here’s my big, chaotic prediction among all these categories: Delroy Lindo will scoop up a Best Supporting Actor trophy. That’s despite Lindo not even getting nominated, let alone winning, in this category at all other major 2026 Oscars precursors. Call it a hunch, call it a sign I’m off my rocker. Sinners has a lot of buzz surrounding it at the moment and Lindo’s unforgettable performance is a major reason it works so well as a crowdpleaser feature. Granted, Sean Penn or Stellan Skarsgard could totally take this home for One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value, respectively. However, the lack of a clear frontrunner makes me think Lindo swoops in and snags the statue.
Who Will Win: Delroy Lindo for Weapons
Who Should Win: Delroy Lindo for Sinners
Best Actor
Best Actor is a question mark right now, with no definitive frontrunner emerging. I can’t imagine Leonardo DiCaprio scoring a second trophy, Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme hasn’t won any major precursor awards. Right now, Michael B. Jordan could ride a wave of Sinners appreciation for a win. However, I’m going out on another limb and saying Wagner Moura snags a victory for The Secret Agent. Yes, only Roberto Benigni in Life is Beautiful has secured a Best Actor win for an international film not in English. However, Moura’s established a mighty reputation over years of tremendous performances. Additionally, he’s the face of a beloved Best Picture nominee, and his Secret Agent turn is extraordinary. Don’t be shocked if Jordan or even Ethan Hawke wins this, but I’ll wager Moura secures this category.
Who Will Win: Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Who Should Win: Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Best Actress
Here’s the only acting category at the 98th Academy Awards that has a surefire winner. Jessie Buckley will win for Hamnet, rejoice Wild Rose fans! Our queen has done it!
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
Who Should Win: Mariam Afshari for It Was Just an Accident (if she was nominated!)
Best Director
And now we come to the two biggest categories and the ones rife with uncertainty. Looking at which filmmakers have won the most Best Director prizes in the 2025-2026 award season, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another sure does look to be leading the pack. Right now, though, I’ve only got One Battle After Another assuredly winning two 2026 Oscars. Typically, the Academy gives the Best Director prize to movies that have won a bunch of awards, like Anora (five total wins), Oppenheimer (seven total wins), and La La Land (six total wins).
Exceptions exist, like The Power of the Dog’s sole Oscar win four years ago coming with the Best Director category. However, that film prevailed in a rare year where the eventual Best Picture winner wasn’t nominated for Best Director. Ryan Coogler for Sinners, meanwhile, has a movie destined to sweep the technical categories, an achievement that films like Gravity, The Revenant, Life of Pi, and La La Land parlayed into Best Director victories. It’s going to be so close, but let’s say Coogler wins this.
Who Will Win: Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Who Should Win: Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Best Picture
The Silence of the Lambs is the only horror movie to ever win the Best Picture Oscar. A musical hasn’t won this category since Chicago in 2002. All of those realities should say Sinners winning this is impossible. Yet that’s feeling more and more like a reality. Do not be shocked if One Battle After Another pulls out a win here. It’s been unstoppable at so many major award shows like the BAFTA’s and PGA Awards. However, Sinners has also been on a steady roll. It’s cultivated a mighty passionate fanbase, and it seems certain to sweep up a lot of trophies long before the Best Picture winner is announced to the world.
That, combined with One Battle not quite being a frontrunner in other major categories (like Best Actor or Director), suggests Sinners could have the edge. In the Best Picture battle of two acclaimed Warner Bros. movies that made inspired use of IMAX auditoriums, Sinners should be the bloody victor.
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: Sinners
The 97th Academy Awards (aka the 2026 Oscars) will air on ABC and Hulu on March 15, 2026 at 7 PM Eastern Time.