To quote Nickelback, “How the hell did we wind up like this?”
The 97th Academy Awards have been a rollercoaster ride. Mud-slinging between award-season campaigns and the uber-rich is customary. However, many unpleasant controversies have plagued this year’s Oscars, from Karla Sofia Gascon’s horrific tweets to more than one actor having to explain incidents of blackface in their history.
Still, this ceremony, like many before it, carries the promise of elevating smaller indie titles like Anora, No Other Land, and I’m Still Here to a larger audience’s attention, one the features might not achieve without the Academy’s flowers.
As in years past, this piece tackles all 23 categories, predicting who will win and declaring who should. In the case of the nominated shorts, this writer has not seen them. Therefore, I did not feel it appropriate to weigh in on who should win. Additionally, some categories demand a bit more commentary than some simple shot calling.
So, without further ado, welcome to The Spool’s pre-show for the 97th Academy Awards!
Opinions? I’ve Got A Few!
Best Cinematography
There’s a chance Greig Frasier wins his second Dune Oscar for his cinematography on that Best Picture nominee. More likely, though, Lol Crawley’s staggering Brutalist imagery will cement him a win.
Who Will Win: The Brutalist
Who Should Win: The Brutalist
Best Original Song
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Dianne Warren finally won an Oscar this year solely because Emilia Perez lost all its momentum at the last minute? That’s not 100% impossible, but if there’s any category Perez is walking away with a win, it’s this one.
Who Will Win: Emilia Perez
Who Should Win: Sing Sing
Best International Feature Film
If there’s any Oscar category where Emilia Perez’s endless controversy may cost it, it’s Best International Feature Film. The Jacques Audiard-helmed musical has won this category at several Oscar precursor events, but I’m wagering fellow Best Picture nominee I’m Still Here beats it come March 2nd. The momentum for Here hasn’t diminished, while Perez doesn’t feel like it has as much global support. Brazil, prepare to gather your first Best International Feature Film Oscar win.
Who Will Win: I’m Still Here
Who Should Win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Documentary Feature Film
No Other Land has absolutely dominated the Best Documentary category in the 2024-2025 award season. Its only major Best Documentary “loss” came when Porcelain War triumphed at the DGA Awards when the Guild didn’t even nominate No Other Land. Expect it to recapture its winning ways at the Oscars, reinforcing the cowardly idiocy of not a single U.S. distributor snagging it.
Who Will Win: No Other Land
Who Should Win: No Other Land
Best Animated Feature Film
Eight of the last nine Producers Guild of America Awards for Best Animated Motion Picture winners have gone on to secure that same award at the Oscars. That bodes well for The Wild Robot, which could get animation legend Chris Sanders his first Oscar. Don’t count out Flow, though, which has been sweeping several ceremonies, too. Additionally, it netted a Best International Feature Film Oscar nomination. Even with the PGA Awards and the Oscars lining up so often recently, I’ll err on the side of Flow as the last two Oscars have leaned towards unexpected victors in this category.
Who Will Win: Flow
Who Should Win: The Wild Robot
Best Adapted Screenplay
For the longest time, Peter Straughan’s Conclave screenplay looked like the odds-on favorite here. After all, Conclave has eight Oscar nominations at its back, along with wins at major Oscar precursor ceremonies like the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTAs. However, in recent weeks, RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ Nickel Boys screenplay has picked up some serious momentum, including a win at the Writers Guild of America Awards. Only in four of the last 14 years have the WGA Awards and Oscars split on Best Adapted Screenplay. That track record’s enough for me. I say the best nominee also walks away with the Oscar this year.
Who Will Win: Nickel Boys
Who Should Win: Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
There’s a chance Sean Baker joins Walt Disney and Bong Joon-ho as the only people in history to win four Oscars in one night thanks to Anora. While he’s likely in for a more challenging fight with his other noms, Best Original Screenplay feels pretty much assured for the Tangerine filmmaker.
Who Will Win: Anora
Who Should Win: Anora
Best Supporting Actress
Despite all the endless chaos swirling around Emilia Pérez, this looks like Zoe Saldaña’s to lose. So far, she’s won all the major precursor Best Supporting Actress awards for her Pérez work. That’s been the case even at ceremonies that otherwise shunned the film. There’s also the Academy’s history of handing this award to actors who’ve been in the industry for eons.
Ariana Grande in Wicked could be a spoiler for this award, but I suspect the Academy is saving the honors for Wicked: For Good. This award SHOULD go to Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for her captivating Nickel Boys work. Regrettably, the Academy shamefully didn’t even nominate her—one of the most egregious snubs in recent memory.
Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez
Who Should Win: Ariana Grande in Wicked
Best Supporting Actor
It certainly would be a fittingly chaotic capper to such a wild award season if Edward Norton finally won for A Complete Unknown after three previous nominations. That outcome’s not impossible, but definitely unlikely. Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain has utterly dominated this category throughout awards season. He’s going home with an Oscar come March 2nd. Dude’s ¾ of the way to an EGOT! Quick, someone get him a big Broadway play, stat!
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Who Should Win: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Best Actor
Adrien Brody in The Brutalist has been unstoppable in this category all season. Timothee Chalamet will eventually win an Oscar, but not this year. Twelve years after InAppropriate Comedy, Brody’s finally back to prestige cinema world with his second Oscar win.
Who Will Win: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Who Should Win: Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
Best Actress
This is the one acting category this year that feels up in the air. Demi Moore in The Substance has become a favorite to take this one home, but a challenger has appeared in the form of Mikey Madison in Anora! That Baker film becoming an award-season juggernaut could provide enough of a rising tide to send Madison home with the statuette. The Substance technically being a genre movie might hold it back, too. Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here swooping in to score a surprise win can’t be discounted, either. All season, she’s proven a strong contender.
Catch me earlier and my gut says Moore. But now, with Madison winning everything in sight, including the BAFTA for Best Actress, things feel shakier. The Academy loves a comeback story, but Moore might not be the star of this year’s.
Who Will Win: Mikey Madison in Anora
Who Should Win: Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here
Best Director
There’s been enough spreading the love in this award season that it feels realistic that Brady Corbet could take home Best Director for The Brutalist while his film still misses out on Best Picture. Previously, the Oscars have shown Best Director sometimes goes to the grandest contender in scope. For instance, in the 88th Academy Awards, Spotlight netted the Best Picture statue that year, but The Revenant took home Best Director. However, with so much Anora momentum, it’s hard to imagine Baker missing here.
Who Will Win: Sean Baker for Anora
Who Should Win: Sean Baker for Anora
Best Picture
While the 2024-2025 award season lacked a frontrunner for so long, Anora now feels like the juggernaut on the scene. The 2024 Palme d’Or winner briefly (for a month, I’d wager) fell to Emilia Perez and The Brutalist as the de facto award season champion. That all changed when Anora dominated the Critics’ Choice, WGA, PGA, and DGA Awards. Suddenly, Anora looks like an unbeatable champion.
That’s impressive on multiple fronts, including the genres Anora occupies. Per FilmSite, only seven straightforward comedies have won the Best Picture Oscar. Even more damning, only one, The Artist, has taken home the trophy since 1977. Plus, this is a distinctly modern film, a feature with a sex worker in the lead role, when 20 of the last 30 Best Picture Oscar winners were either primarily or exclusively period pieces. Finally, a woman leads Anora during an era when 18 of the current 24 21st-century Best Picture winners have had male protagonists.
Anora, though, looks poised to shatter many Best Picture Oscar conventions. There’s still a chance The Brutalist or (gulp) Emilia Perez pulls an upset. Right now, though, Anora looks fully in command, a status quo only briefly in doubt. While the transcendent Nickel Boys is my personal favorite of the Best Picture crop, Anora is just behind it. I’m personally stoked to see Ani get her roses. And to any Best Picture nominees sour of possibly losing to Anora? Just remember, “Jealousy is a disease, babe!”
Who Will Win: Anora
Who Should Win: Nickel Boys
Lightning Round!
Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Who Should Win: Better Man
Best Sound
Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Who Should Win: The Wild Robot
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: The Brutalist
Who Should Win: The Brutalist
Best Documentary Short Film
Who Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Who Should Win: N/A
Best Live-Action Short Film
Who Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Who Should Win: N/A
Best Animated Short Film
Who Will Win: Beautiful Men
Who Should Win: N/A
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: Wicked
Who Should Win: Nosferatu
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Who Will Win: The Substance
Who Should Win: A Different Man
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: Anora
Who Should Win: Anora
Best Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Who Should Win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
The 97th Academy Awards comes to ABS this Sunday, March 2.